Tracking The Sb Winner

[THEGAME9000]

this weekend starts the run to the superbowl, the adage "defense wins championships" will be tracked through elimination and playoff score outcomes.
after each playoff round the standings will be updated.

2 superbowl systems are applied to each team, both of which have shown impressive results in superbowl history.

#1)THE SHUTDOWN. take the team that has allowed thier opponents to score 3pts or less the most times during the regular season. if the # of games is equal, take the team who has more games in the playoffs where they held thier opponents to 3pts or less. if the # of games is still equal, take the points.

this system has went...
24-11-3 ats in all superbowls
15-4-2 ats in the last 21 superbowls
11-2-2 ats in the last 15 superbowls

the last 11 superbowls where one of the 2 superbowl participants have held a 2 or more game advantage, the outcome has went....
10-1 straight up and 9-2 ats with an average score of 35-19 (AVE 54 PT TOTAL)

SB 16 (+2 EDGE) SF-1 WON 26-21
SB 19 (+2 EDGE) SF-3 WON 38-16
SB 20 (+2 EDGE) CHI-10 WON 46-10
SB 22 (+2 EDGE) DEN-3.5 LOST 10-42
SB 26 (+3 EDGE) WASH-7 WON 37-24
SB 27 (+2 EDGE) DAL-6.5 WON 52-17
SB 28 (+2 EDGE) DAL-10.5 WON 30-13
SB 32 (+4 EDGE) DEN+11.5 WON 31-24
SB 35 (+4 EDGE) BAL-3 WON 34-7
SB 37 (+2 EDGE) TB+3.5 WON 48-21
SB 38 (+3 EDGE) NE-7 WON 32-29

#2) DEFENSIVE CONSISTENCY. take the team with the greater amount of regular season games in which they held thier opponents to less than 10 pts. if the # of games is equal, take the points.

this system has went...
16-5-2 ats in the last 23 superbowls
9-3-2 ats in the last 14 superbowls
6-1-2 ats in the last 9 superbowls

current odds on favorites to win and cover the superbowl as it currently stands...

1 pittsburgh
2 new england
3 philadelphia
4 ny jets
5 seattle
6 san diego
7 denver
8 st.louis
9 atlanta
10 minnesota
11 indianapolis
12 green bay

the field standings will be altered as teams get eliminated and playoff scores are incorperated.

GAME.

 

[Deb12]

Hey THEGAME9000..

What an excellent theory! I am curious to see how it plays out this year, I remember "Wild Bill" from Silly Sports ( which is now done and gone ) had a "Blow-Out" theory that he tracked and was pretty successful with.

If I remember right, he tracked how many Blow-Out wins a team had during the regular season and played the mismatch when it came to the playoffs, I think he defined a Blow-out win as a win by 20 or more points, thus if team A had 3 Blow-out wins during the regular season and was facing team B who had 1 Blow-out win during the regular season...then you would wager on team A regardless of the point spread because they had more Blow-out wins than team B.

I think that's how it went but I'm not sure, I'll see if I can find out the exact system and will post it here if I can find it.

take care

Deb

 

[THEGAME9000]

UPDATE AFTER WILDCARD ROUND


1) pittsburgh
2) new england
3) new york
4) philadelphia
5) atlanta
6) minnesota
7) st.louis
8) indianapolis

GAME.

 

[Marco]

Interesting....kinda like that system that has like 30-some categories and assigns point values to each category.....add all the point values given to each team.....was retrofitted to the super bowls and has like a 35-3 record or something like that.....was this Northcoasts?

Personally I'm curious as to why......of the last 23 or so super bowls, 18 of them have played over the total to about 5 that have stayed under.....any theories to this.....gotta go back to the early 80's to find a time when the balance was even....

West coast offense have anything to do with this irregularity.......?????

Anymore I either bet the over on the superbowl or don't bet it at all......same goes for the pro bowl.....seems every year the losing team scores about 25 and the total is set in the mid forties.....

Any thoughts?

 

[THEGAME9000]

first of all the "northcoast system" was probably the most backfit, bogus, baseless system i have ever had the misfortune of seeing in my entire life.

both of my systems were developed by me 5 years ago.."then" researched back to see how they would have done in the previous superbowls, and to my pleasant surprise they worked for the most part on a fairly succesful basis.

mine are based on the adage "defense wins championships".

northcoasts was based on "lets try to look like we know something"

as far as totals for superbowls, your right always take the over unless you get the opportunity to have another raven defense, "or something like it", back in the bowl again.
which by the way you won't see this year regardless of who gets in.

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

current standings after divisional round.


1). PITTSBURGH
2). NEW ENGLAND
3). ATLANTA
4). PHILADELPHIA

GAME.

 

[thekid]

Question? How did Atl jump to 3rd over Philly. Atl gave up 17 points the last game and Philly gave up only 14. Please help. Thanks in advance. KID

 

[THEGAME9000]

the original listing was a typo, #1 SHUTDOWN has had a better winning % over the long haul.


GAME.

 

[MightyMoe]

Cool Stuff!

Thanks for sharing the info with us. It's always interesting to see the different angles for each team.

 

[THEGAME9000]

it's official, take new england in the superbowl, load up, and feel free to give up to 13.5 pts.

i'll explain next week.

GAME.

 

[BIGWave]

Moved from -4 1/2 to -6 1/2 -113 since the end of the first game......

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Moved from -4 1/2 to -6 1/2 -113 since the end of the first game......

what did?

 

[BIGWave]

The above mentioned line on New England to win the Superbowl versus the Eagles.